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- The Pocket Guide to Pseudoscience by ZME Science 2018 (pdf)
Andrei Mihai Page 2
Andrei Mihai Read online
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Of course, planets aren’t perfect spheres -- they have features like
mountains or valleys, and tend to form bulges around their equator --
but they’re definitely, without a doubt, not flat.
Why aren’t planets flat?
Let’s assume for a second that you could make a flat Earth. We’ll still
need a hypothetical, dense ‘core’ which would also be flat, or slab-like.
This model is already unstable. Gravity as a force acts between the
center of mass of two or more objects -- and by mathematical definition,
centers of mass are points [11], not volumes or lines. Under the sway of gravity, particles will try to move as close as they possibly can to that
center of mass. A slab or a disk simply has too many particles too far
away from the center to be stable.
Even if such a slab formed , it would later col apse into a sphere-like
object.
14
Flat Earth
For debate’s sake, let’s consider the slab to be indestructible. Even
so, any new material drawn by the slab’s gravitational pull will tend to
gather as close to the center of gravity as possible, and in time, will also
end up forming a sphere.
If that doesn’t convince you (because, let’s face it, it’s a bit too abstract), here’s more tangible evidence against Flat Earth:
It’s a common misconception
2,000
that the Earth was only recently
year-old shown to be round.
proof
The ancient Greeks already
suspected that the Earth was
spherical.
The idea popped up in the 5th century BC, in the works of Herodotus
and later Pythagoras[12], to whom the spherical model is widely attributed.
Before 200 BC, the Greek mathematician named Eratosthenes used
shadows to not only show that the Earth is round, but to calculate its
circumference as well [13] -- and he was able to do this without leaving Egypt, where he was living. He did it by noting the angles of shadows
in two cities on the Summer Solstice, when the Sun reaches its highest
position in the sky (there are two solstices every year, one for each
hemisphere). By knowing the distance between the two cities and the
shade angle, you can calculate the size of the Earth’s sphere.
His result was a mere 66
km off (0.16%) from the
currently accepted polar
circumference of the Earth.
15
Flat Earth
We don’t know if Eratosthenes was the first to devise this, but his
experiment remained in history.
The idea was replicated several times, and can be still tested today --
all you need is a friend from a nearby city, a protractor, and two sticks.
Magellan
His is perhaps the most
famous example.
Loaded with money
from the Spanish Crown,
renowned explorer
Ferdinand Magellan
embarked on August
10, 1519, from Seville
(Spain), leading five
ships.
Magel an sailed across the Atlantic, passed what would be known
as the Strait of Magel an, final y taking a little break in the province of
Cebu in the Philippines -- where a bunch of natives killed him in battle.
Realizing that things were very problematic, second-in-command
Juan Sebastián Elcano took charge and led the expedition back home
-- to the other side of the planet. They arrived back in Seville on
September 6, 1522, after ful y circumnavigating the globe. Charles I
of Spain rewarded Elcano with a coat of arms and the motto ‘Primus
circumdedisti me’ (“You went around me first”).
More recently, the Transglobe Expedition (1979–1982) was the
first expedition to make a circumpolar circumnavigation, traversing
both poles of rotation (north and south) using only surface transport.
Together with Magel an’s east-west circumnavigation, this clearly proves
that the Earth is a sphere.
16
Flat Earth
Another simple experiment, particularly popular with kids, is the
“ships on the horizon” example: if you’re next to a port or a large body
of water, you might see that approaching ships seem to emerge from the
horizon. They don’t move up and down; it happens because the Earth is
round. Think of an ant walking around on an orange -- that’s the type
of effect you see with the ships, even though the scales are much larger.
Something else you can try to do by yourself is keeping an eye on the
sky. For thousands of years, people have noted that constel ations shift
depending on your position on the planet. This can only be realistical y
explained if the Earth is round. You can try this yourself, whenever you
have a long-distance trip coming up.
If you look at the sky, you might also see that the Moon and other
planets are round -- although interestingly, the Flat Earth Society
tweeted that “Unlike the Earth, Mars has been observed to be round.”
Lastly, in the past decades, people have done something pretty neat:
they’ve gone to space and taken photos of the Earth.
Lo and behold, it’s pretty round.
. . .
We sometimes ridicule people for buying into these
fairy tales -- which isn't particularly nice of us.
For many people who give in to pseudoscience,
these ideas offer an escape from a world that's
often cruel, unfair, or just doesn't make sense. But
these ideas end up further robbing them of agency
and feelings of control over their life.
That's what makes this whole affair tragic.
. . .
17
Flat Earth
References (Flat Earth)
10. Las Cumbres Observatory, “Planets and How They Formed”.
11. Khan Academy, “What is center of mass?” .
12. Melissa Hogenboom, “We have known that the Earth is round for over
2000 years” , BBC.
13. Julian Rubin, “Eratosthenes The Measurement of the Earth’s
Circumference. Hands On Activity: Repeat Eratosthenes’ Experiment” , juliantrubin.com
18
Astrology
The Stars
Don’t
care
About you.
19
Astrology
Astrology
To most people, the idea of a flat Earth seems absolutely ridiculous.
So let’s continue with something just as ridiculous: a 2,000-year-
old divination practice which claims that the life and personality of
some primates is defined by the movement of the moon, planets,
and a few randomly defined constellations.
Or, as most people call it, astrology.
Astrology is the belief that the alignment of stars and planets affects
every individual’s mood, personality, and environment -- it all depends
on when the individual was born.
Except it doesn’t. There is no mechanism to justify this, no force
that can back it up, and no rational reason to split up the entire
human population into 12 groups represented by randomly assigned
constel ations. It’s been thoroughly disproven as a pseudoscience.
Renowned astrologer Elizabeth Teissier famously tried to explainr />
astrology by saying that “the sun ends up in the same place in the sky on
the same date each year,” but that couldn’t be further from the truth-- on
any specific date, there’s a difference in Earth’s location of about twenty-
two thousand miles between two successive years.
The constel ations used in the western zodiac were first described
in Babylon, some 3,000 years ago. They hardly even look like what
they’re supposed to represent, and there’s no reason to assign 1/12th
of the world’s population to one constel ation. Does my life depend on
Babylonian pattern-matching and ancient magic?
Certainly not.
20
Astrology
Testing
It’s not easy to test astrology because
astrology
astrologers themselves can’t agree
on what it’s supposed to do.
Throughout its history, astrology has been regarded as a science, an
art, and a form of divination magic. Some claim that astrology is a real
branch of science, and that there is a verifiable mechanism behind it
which underpins its workings -- but we just haven’t found it yet.
Despite several trials and experiments, astrology has never demonstrated
its effectiveness scientifical y and was refuted through various methods
(more on that a bit later).
Others astrologers propose conventional causal agents such
as electromagnetism and gravity. But the gravitational effect of
constel ations is completely negligible compared to even that of the
moon, let alone the Earth -- and the perceived magnetic field of other
planets and constel ations is far weaker than even those produced by
modern household appliances.
Final y, some practitioners don’t try to explain a causal agent, simply
saying that the field cannot be researched -- essential y, classifying
astrology as a form of divination, a supernatural force at work. Wel ,
there’s not much we can do to disprove magic.
Or can we?
(of course we can)
21
Astrology
It’s not easy to find new studies about
astrology. It’s been disproven through
Astrology
and through, and there’s very little
studies
incentive to carry out additional studies.
But the few existing ones are quite
convincing.
The Carlson study
In 1985, a young physicist called Shawn Carlson carried out[14] what is widely regarded to be the most comprehensive test of astrologers’
abilities. He involved renowned astrologers from Europe and the US,
and designed the study to meet both scientific rigor and astrology
demands. During the study, neither the participants nor the researchers
knew which participants belonged to which group, thus eliminating
bias from all sides -- a double-blind trial. The results were clear: the
astrologers’ guesses were no better than chance -- and even when the
astrologers were very confident that they had made a match correctly,
results were still no better than chance. Or, as Carson himself put it,
astrologers “are wrong.”
Not all studies are made equal. Look
Astrology Works, hard enough through the literature,
but only in rigged you’ll come across studies that seem to
studies
suggest astrology might work.
In 1979[15], Ivan Kel yfrom the University of Saskatchewan showed that the vast majority of studies conducted do not confirm astrological
claims and the few studies that do need additional clarification.
Kel y also carried out a separate study[16] over several decades, where he tracked more than 2,000 people under the same zodiac sign -- most
of them born within minutes of each other. According to astrology,
the subject should have had very similar traits, but this was not the
case.
22
Astrology
The study participants had no notable similarities, outside what
you’d expect from a random distribution. Peter Hartman from the
University of Aarhus designed a similar study with an even larger
sample size which produced similar results.
No matter how you look at it, astrology simply doesn’t work. But
sometimes, it seems like it does.
Our brains are hardwired to look for patterns[17].
Sometimes, when two unrelated or random events happen,
our mind tries to see a connection -- even when there's
no connection to be seen. In the case of astrology, a very
similar effect pops up.
This effect is called "subjective validation" and it occurs
when two unrelated or random events are perceived to be
related because of a previous belief or expectancy, which
'demands' a relationship.
You read a horoscope, it says that something will happen to
you, and whenever something somewhat relevant happens,
you attribute it to the horoscope you read previously.
The Forer experiment
Forer gave a “unique” personality analysis to his students and asked
them to rate how well it suits them, on a scale from 0 to 5[18].
By now, you’ve probably guessed what happened -- all the students
received the same personality analysis, and all of them thought it suited
them. Even better, Forer created the personality analysis from various
horoscopes.
23
Astrology
Here’s what such a horoscope sounded like:
• “You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.”
• “You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.”
• “You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not
turned to your advantage.”
• “While you have some personality weaknesses, you are general y
able to compensate for them.”
• “Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome
and insecure inside.”
• “At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made
the right decision or done the right thing.”
• “You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become
dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.”
• “You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept
others’ statements without satisfactory proof.’
• “You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to
others.”
• “At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other
times you are introverted, wary, reserved.”
• “Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.”
Does this sound like you? Well, the average rating that
students gave this assessment was 4.26/5 -- in other words,
they found the assessment to be 85% accurate, even though
they were all blanket statements.
These type of blanket statements became known as Barnum
statements[19]-- after P.T. Barnum, who used them in his
performances, allegedly stating:
“There’s a sucker born every minute.”
24
Astrology
More evidence
of
Paranormal Inactivity
A similar experiment was carried out, ironic
al y, by astrologer
Michael Gauquelin. Gauquelin offered free horoscopes to any reader
of a Parisian newspaper, provided that they would give feedback on
the accuracy of his supposedly “individual” analysis. As with Forer’s
experiment, he sent out thousands of copies of the same horoscope
to people of all astrological signs -- 94% of readers replied that the
reading was accurate and insightful. To top it off, the horoscope
he gave out was that of a local mass murderer, Dr. Petiot, who had
admitted during his trial that he had killed 63 people.
Gauquelin set out to scientifical y analyze astrology, and his results
came out strongly against his profession.
In a sense, astrology is a benign pseudoscience -- it doesn’t real y
do anything bad directly. It’s glorifying, gives a sense of communion
with the cosmos, and it promises to bring a bit of magic into your
day-to-day life.
But, at the end of the day, it’s just not real. There’s a sucker born
every minute -- and most of them are looking for magic.
25
Astrology
References (astrology)
14. Shawn Carlson, (1985), “A double-blind test of astrology“, Nature.
15. Ivan Kel y, (1979), “Astrology And Science: A Critical Examination“,
Psychological Reports.
16. Robert Matthews, “Astrologers fail to predict proof they are wrong“, The Telegraph.
17. Paul Thagard, (1978), “Why Astrology Is A Pseudoscience“, PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association.
18. Bertram Forer, (1949), “The fal acy of personal validation: a classroom
demonstration of gullibility“, The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology.
19. “Barnum Effect | psychology“, Encyclopedia Britannica.
26
Homeopathy
Homeopathy
is still bs.
27
Homeopathy
Ho
me While astrology may be largely benign, here’s a
pseudoscience that isn’t: homeopathy.
o
Despite a mountain of science disproving
homeopathy, many people are using it as a
treatment -- sometimes, at the expense of getting
pa proper medical treatment.
Let’s have a look at it.